Bill Gross, Pimco's super star bond guru, has been talking about the "new normal" for some time now. He warns investors to set realistic expectations for the next decade predicated on a "new normal" slower growth domestic economy. Gus Sauter, Vanguard's Chief Investment Officer, acknowledges that the U.S. economy is likely to have slow growth for a while; however, he argues that investors should not give up on U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds. Gus points to the data which shows there is little correlation between economic growth and stock market returns. Just because the emerging markets like China and India are growing at faster rates does not guarantee that their equity markets will outperform U.S. stocks over the next 10 years. From 1900-2000, both U.S. and U.K stocks returned 10% per year even though the U.S. economy outpaced Britain's growth by a margin of 3% per year to 2% per year. Sauter points out that stock and bond returns are more correlated with the risk an investor takes than anything else.
