News For Investors

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  Sep 2011
  • Investment Strategy For The Remainder of 2011 (click to read full article)
    Bill Gross, Pimco's super star bond guru, has been talking about the "new normal" for some time now.  He warns investors to set realistic expectations for the next decade predicated on a "new normal" slower growth domestic economy.  Gus Sauter, Vanguard's Chief Investment Officer, acknowledges that the U.S. economy is likely to have slow growth for a while; however, he argues that investors should not give up on U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds.  Gus points to the data which shows there is little correlation between economic growth and stock market returns.  Just because the emerging markets like China and India are growing at faster rates does not guarantee that their equity markets will outperform U.S. stocks over the next 10 years.  From 1900-2000, both U.S. and U.K stocks returned 10% per year even though the U.S.  economy outpaced Britain's growth by a margin of 3% per year to 2% per year.  Sauter points out that stock and bond returns are more correlated with the risk an investor takes than anything else.
  • California or Bust (click for full article)
    “You could see 50 sizable defaults, 50 to 100 sizable defaults, more.  This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of defaults.” - Meredith Whitney
     
    “Your theory is crazy, but it's not crazy enough to be true.” - Niels Bohr
     
    Meredith Whitney, market “seer”, appeared on 60 Minutes in December and made her bold prediction about the municipal bond market.  Subsequently, many investors sold municipal bonds and funds without understanding their investments.  Her statement was based on a questionable, yet popular narrative: cities and states are in catastrophic financial distress.  She admits her prediction was an approximation, not a detailed examination, but she insists it is accurate.   Although many states and local governments are in difficult situations, most circumstances are not dire.  Whitney’s prediction is possible, but unlikely.
  • Market Smart (click to read full article)
    “And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all.” - Socrates
     
    There is no shortage of market strategists.   Listeners of business radio and watchers of CNBC or Fox Business News are bombarded with “experts” and their opinions.  These “gurus” flaunt their “abilities” to sift through myriad financial and economic data and declare their predictions.  Unfortunately, these gurus are frequently wrong; their powers are more appropriately labeled as luck.  They sound smart but really know nothing.
     
  • Some Observations on Social Security (click for full article)
    You can be young without money but you can’t be old without it.-Tennessee Williams
     
    Our baby boomer clients who are fast approaching retirement typically ask us a lot of questions about Social Security retirement benefits.
     
    By far, the most frequently asked question concerns the best time to commence the receipt of monthly payments.
     
    While we’ve never held ourselves out to be experts when it comes to Social Security, (some of our friends might kiddingly suggest that we shouldn’t hold ourselves out as experts in anything) we’ve been around long enough to have accumulated some knowledge along the way. On that basis, then, we will now attempt to provide some information on the matter at hand. Listed below are some Social Security ground rules as we understand them.
     
     
  • In Search of Energy Independence (click for full article)
    “It puzzles me how they know what corners are good for filling stations. Just how did they know gas and oil was under there?”- Dizzy Dean
     
    As we write, a supertanker bound for the United States carrying an estimated $200 million of crude oil has been hijacked by Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean.
     
    This development follows the previous day’s revelation by The Guardian that cables between Saudi Arabian and U.S. officials recently released by Wikileaks suggest that Saudi oil reserves have been previously overstated by an estimated 300 billion barrels, or some 40%.